Can Deadlock become the next big thing in esports?

With the arrival of Violet, the fifth of six heroes in the City Never Sleeps update, Deadlock has surpassed the 300,000 concurrent player mark on Steam. Each new hero has broken the previous record, with 228,086 players at the launch of the update in late September, followed by 262,145 on October 9, enough to surpass Team Fortress 2's all-time peak of 253,997, and finally 275,452 the following week. Deadlock has thus become the third most-played Valve title in terms of peak concurrent players, behind its two giants, Counter-Strike 2 and Dota 2. This achievement is all the more remarkable given that the game remains invite-only, with no release date announced or expected.

Between the introduction of a ranked mode this summer and the update in late September, Deadlock has experienced a genuine surge in popularity, including on Twitch, where its viewership curve has taken off. In October, the game averaged more than 21,000 viewers, compared to just 8,200 in September, a 160% increase and its highest level since September 2024, according to TwitchTracker. This raises a question: can the game become a major esport?

Deadlock combines MOBA gameplay with a third-person hero shooter. The concept will be familiar to League of Legends players, with two teams facing off on a map featuring three lanes, where waves of minions advance towards the opposing base. The game is won by destroying the enemy Patron, the equivalent of the Nexus. Each player also controls a hero with unique abilities and collects "souls", the equivalent of gold, to purchase items. However, there are many differences, including six-player teams instead of five, a third-person camera, and no mana system.

Another major characteristic, officially confirmed by Valve in August 2024, is that the game still has no release date and can only be played by invitation from an existing player. Valve continues to develop it through major updates, even reworking the entire map, which went from four lanes to three in February 2025.

Of the six people interviewed for this article, none has received any concrete indication from Valve regarding its competitive plans. Not even Virtus.pro, which signed the Buff Enjoyers roster in February 2025, when it was considered the leading team in Europe. "Back then, Deadlock looked like Valve's next big thing," recalls Nikita Lutov, the organization's Head of Esports Development. Rumors at the time suggested that a proper competitive scene was imminent, and "other major organizations were considering entering the scene once Valve signaled its commitment to competitive Deadlock," he adds.

In terms of results, the move paid off, with 15 titles in six months. Financially, however, the cost was much higher. "Being an early mover always comes at a cost," the executive explains. In August 2025, Virtus.pro left the game. With no major LAN event on the horizon, neither tournament organizers nor other major organizations took the first step. Lutov sees this as "a classic chicken-and-egg problem that Valve was uniquely positioned to solve, just as it had done with Dota 2."

Valve had taken a different approach with Dota 2, where a competitive scene was already in place long before the game's official release in 2013, and Virtus.pro had benefited considerably. "We had more than 25 big LAN events in Dota with approximately $4 million in combined prize money, including two editions of The International before the game was officially released," recalls Nikita Lutov. Two years after Deadlock's testing phase began, Valve has yet to organize an event of its own.

A year later, Lutov's assessment remains bitter. "Unfortunately, it’s October 2026 now and we have yet to see a major breakthrough," he says. In his view, the player record changes little, as a growing player base "doesn't necessarily change the business case for professional esports organizations."

In the absence of official investment, the scene has organized itself, and it is beginning to make an impact. Deadlock Night Shift, the most-watched weekly competition in Europe and North America, announced a $12,000 tournament last May, supported by Intel and Walmart. Death Slam attracted 54 teams to the open qualifiers for its $10,000 North American Invitational, having previously organized the game's first-ever LAN in Toronto in August 2025. In Asia-Pacific, the APAC Pro League (APL) features 24 teams in its ninth edition, while Deadlock Premier keeps South America active. Its next event will be the Deadlock Premier Copa America on November 14 and 15, featuring eight teams representing countries across the continent, including the United States, Canada, Peru and Brazil. The event will benefit the Trevor Project.

The American collegiate scene has also embraced the game on a significant scale. Launched by College Deadlock in spring 2025 with $5,000 in prize money, the Deadlock Collegiate Series brought together 15 universities for its first season, split between an Eastern and a Western conference. Two seasons later, the third season features 130 teams from 97 universities, divided into five divisions.

However, the scene is largely run by volunteers. In the APL, prize money is funded entirely through donations. Pusle, one of its organizers, prefers this model, while remaining realistic about its limitations. "People aren’t just in it for the love of the game," he acknowledges. At Deadlock Premier, founder Matheo "tekka" Kouroussis pays out the prize money out of his own pocket, while recognizing that "passion does not pay the bills or feed you."

Beyond the number of registered teams, the competitive scene remains relatively small at the top level. Danilo "H1RO" Dócimo, who works alongside tekka at Deadlock Premier, estimates that there are between ten and 15 genuinely competitive teams worldwide. Latin America is home to only four of them, limiting opportunities for scrims. Pusle, however, believes that talent is there, particularly in Asia-Pacific, and that teams mainly lack the cohesion that can only develop over time.

The largest prize pools, meanwhile, come from betting companies such as BetBoom, 1win, OLIMPBET and Leon. This is already a divisive issue within the community. "I really wish this wasn’t the case, I do not support gambling," says Quinten "cosmetical" Gruisen. A former competitive Team Fortress 2 player with more than 5,000 hours in the game, he left everything behind to focus on Deadlock. Nikita Lutov takes the opposite view. "With the right approach, allowing betting companies to support an emerging esports scene can be a positive thing," he argues, provided that appropriate safeguards are put in place.

Everyone points to the same catalyst: the game's official release. "I think the first step would be getting an official release; after that all the dominos will fall into place," says Johann "seven" Hernandez, a professional VALORANT player spending his offseason on Deadlock. However, he does not want to rush Valve, believing that "the competitive support isn’t quite there, and it shouldn’t be just yet." Virtus.pro takes a more demanding stance. "An official release or a major tournament announcement alone wouldn't necessarily be enough," warns Nikita Lutov, explaining that organizations are primarily looking for reliable revenue, stability and predictability.

The current uncertainty weighs most heavily on potential partners. "More numbers are good, but I think the game not being 'official', or commercially available for that matter, causes uncertainty," says cosmetical, who believes sponsors and organizations are waiting for the green light from Valve. H1RO sees this firsthand at Deadlock Premier. Convincing a brand to invest in a game that has not even been released remains a difficult proposition.

On the technical side, expectations are more modest. tekka would like to see a more open API to access live data and better spectator tools, although he has little hope of that happening. "Valve is very hands-off with their games’ competitive scenes so asking for more is basically daydreaming," he admits. The community has already taken matters into its own hands, with player-developed spectator mods and websites that manage the draft and even create lobbies automatically. As a result, Pusle expects very little from Valve for now. "I don’t think we necessarily 'need' anything right now," he says.

The real wish shared by these tournament organizers lies elsewhere: a major annual event. "I would like Valve to host something akin to The International (the equivalent of Worlds for Dota 2) for Deadlock," says tekka, who prefers the Dota 2 model, with an involved developer, to that of Counter-Strike, where third-party organizers handle everything. H1RO shares this dream, particularly because he is concerned about the risk of cheating in an overly open ecosystem, an issue that frequently affects CS.

A spectator mode is all the more important, as it should also shape the viewing experience for Deadlock esports fans. The game's lack of visual clarity has already been highlighted by numerous viewers and players on X and across various streams, with many finding it difficult to follow. This complexity appears to stem partly from the fact that Deadlock is a MOBA but also from the presence of 12 different characters, each with their own distinct abilities that can be deployed simultaneously, potentially creating visual chaos for those unfamiliar with the game.

In an esports market with less funding than five years ago, is it arriving too late? "I don't think Deadlock is arriving too late," replies Nikita Lutov, who even envisions a rapid breakthrough. "Imagine Deadlock getting an EWC slot in 2027 — we'd see major organizations signing rosters almost overnight." However, the game cannot afford to wait too long. "There's such a thing as overcooking a product," he warns. Players see things differently. "For me personally, it is arriving at the perfect time," says cosmetical, who sees an opportunity to reach the highest level even before the game's release. What can be an expensive gamble for an organization joining early represents a genuine opportunity for a player.

Opinions differ when it comes to the game's future. "I think Deadlock will be THE esport," says tekka. H1RO, who nevertheless believes he is witnessing "the first 'next gen or 2.0' esport," expects it to become a stable niche instead, due to the game's complexity. Asked whether Deadlock has what it takes to become a major esport, seven answers, "Absolutely," adding that "It has everything that I believe is needed."

Before reaching that point, the scene will also have to make the transition to LAN events successfully. For tekka, this will be a real test, as having six players per team instead of the five found in most esports mechanically increases the cost of every event, requiring different arrangements from major tournament organizers.

Ultimately, however, the timeline depends on a single player in the industry. Nikita Lutov hopes that Valve "won't walk away from Deadlock without giving it a real shot at becoming a major esport." "Hopefully, Deadlock will follow in the footsteps of Counter-Strike and Dota 2 rather than Artifact," he adds, referring to Valve's card game, which was abandoned in 2021.