LEC Summer Split : TH-GX and MDK-KC

This Sunday’s matchups will see the first two teams eliminated from the Summer Playoffs of the LEC. With major Season Finals qualification stakes, Team Heretics, GIANTX, MAD Lions KOI, and Karmine Corp will face each other to gain the right to advance in the tournament and keep the LEC trophy dream alive. The balance of power seems as tense as the pressure to perform for teams who are all at risk of a bitter ending to their 2024 Season.

The first matchup, a Spanish derby, sees two teams with very different recent performances. Team Heretics will have to quickly forget the thrashing they suffered against SK Gaming and gather their remaining forces against a GiantX with excellent momentum due to their very close best-of-three against EMEA powerhouse FNC. However, during the regular season, TH defeated a yet-to-be-structured GX with little difficulty in the opening week. This match was played several weeks ago, so it is tough to truly consider it when analyzing the respective chances of winning.

The main heat zone of the matchup is likely going to be the midlane matchup. With the now infamous ADC-in-mid meta, TH are facing a huge issue: Artur "Zwyroo" Trojan has been struggling a lot with AD mid picks, with the only exception being Corki. As all the playoffs are on patch 14.13, Tristana's and Absorb Life's nerfs aren't live for the match. On the other hand, Adam "Jackies" Jeřábek has been very proficient with Tristana as well as showing other picks such as Kai'Sa and Ezreal. With that in mind, and considering that the Corki-Tristana trade seems to be less and less favorable to the Corki team as time progresses, TH will have to be very vigilant to keep their midlane state safe. If Heretics manage to bring Jackies to traditional mage matchups, where clicking and spacing become less important, they may have an open window to exploit his relative inexperience and lack of consistency on these picks.

GX's main struggles against Fnatic have stemmed from Antonio "Th3Antonio" Espinosa Bejarano's lack of offensive options. Even though he had an average performance in the best-of-three, his inability to be a reliable pressure on the map has forced GX into a predictable sequence of play centered around Lee "Juhan" Ju-han and Lee "IgNar" Dong-geun’s movements dictated by mid pressure, bot wave, and Antonio's TP possibilities. GX have been very effective at executing their game plan; however, once they're ejected from it, they struggle to find other ways to come back. Marcin "Jankos" Jankowski's experience and counter-jungling ability will be crucial in this regard, as Juhan has clearly appeared to be the weak point of GIANTX.

In pure 5v5 teamfighting, it is very difficult to pinpoint any significant lead a team realistically has. GX has the structure, but TH has a clutch potential that must be respected, particularly with Martin "Wunder" Nordahl Hansen and Adrian "Trymbi" Trybus's specialty in that domain.

MAD Lions KOI's season has been a culmination of ups and downs that all converged during their last best-of-three against BDS, a match where the Spanish squad wonderfully dominated the early and mid-game aspects of LoL while throwing two games back-to-back in a way that seemed incomprehensible. One thing is certain, though: after a very difficult Spring Split and Summer Regular Season, Javier "Elyoya" Prades Batalla is back on track.

On the other hand, Karmine Corp received the G2 treatment but still showed a great face against the LEC's title holder. The summer roster changes seem to be paying off, especially with Vladimiros "Vladi" Kourtidis, who has been quick to pick up the LEC pace alongside a very efficient Can "Closer" Çelik and a rejuvenated Elias "Upset" Lipp.

KC and MDK also share a common point: irregular individual performances, and there are no better examples than the toplane matchup. Kim "Canna" Chang-dong still shows flashes of his T1 years, but the trauma of his time under Nongshim RedForce is not fully behind him. Alex "Myrwn" Pastor Villarejo has been gaining consistency over the year but still makes crucial mistakes that can cost a lot. Both players excel more at lane bullying and risky snowballing than weak-siding, and while Closer has been able to funnel his toplaner, Elyoya has struggled more in that regard. If MDK can show the same level of early game prowess displayed against BDS or during their Winter Season peak, KC will face a very tough challenge, but that is a big if. KC are equipped to control MDK's aggressiveness and exploit the gaps present in the wake of MDK's snowball.

One can't talk about this matchup without mentioning the community clash around it. It is significant that in the next best-of-three, Spain's main powerhouse faces France's biggest structure in terms of fan engagement in the LEC. Both structures face immense stakes: KC's defeat would result in a horrible first season for the Blue Wall, and while MDK would have the Winter Split to compensate, losing tonight would feel very frustrating given how promising the roster is.