LoL Worlds 2024: will we witness the same semis as 2023?

The semifinals kick off this Saturday, with four teams still in contention. They will battle it out in best-of-five single-elimination matches to determine who will succeed T1, the reigning world champions. The first semifinal features an all-LPL showdown between two familiar opponents: Weibo Gaming (WBG), the last underdog of the competition, and the LPL champion who has been scaling up throughout the tournament, BiliBili Gaming (BLG).

Today’s semifinal is what could be called a true “LPL classic.” These two teams have clashed numerous times this year, and it’s safe to say that BLG has dominated their head-to-head record. Out of the 11 games they’ve played, BLG has won 10, with Weibo’s only victory coming in a 1-2 series during the Summer Split where they ultimately lost. The last time they met in the Summer playoffs, they faced off twice, and BLG swept them 3-0 in both best-of-five series, including the grand finals.

However, it’s not all bleak for Weibo Gaming. They’ve been steadily improving throughout the season, and their Summer Finals appearance was a testament to their roster’s ability to step up. This team only finished 6th in Spring but fought through to eliminate NIP, LNG, and TES before falling to BLG in the final. Since Worlds began, Weibo has shown that same resilience.

Both WBG and BLG came close to elimination during the Swiss Stage, each standing at 1-2 early on. Both teams revealed draft weaknesses—BLG’s comfort picks were relics from the Summer meta, leaning on their strong laners to clutch key moments, while WBG’s questionable in-game decisions led to some unexpected game throws. They also benefited from a great draw and never had to face each other before today.

But if there’s one thing we know about Worlds, it’s that it defies the usual power dynamics. While BLG might be the statistical favorite, WBG is on a mission to reach their second consecutive Worlds final against an LCK team. Their first LPL showdown in the quarterfinals against a shaky LNG saw them play with a newfound calmness, a marked improvement from the Swiss Stage, proving they’re mentally locked in for the Knockout Stage. BLG would do well not to underestimate them and may finally need to bring some new strategies to the table instead of relying on what has worked in the past. However, their hard-fought victory against HLE in the quarterfinals must have boosted their confidence, particularly in their macro play and teamfighting skills.

Weibo is on a roll against familiar opponents, having already defeated LNG earlier in the tournament, and now they face the LPL giants, Bilibili Gaming, who have not lost a single best-of-five this year, except to Gen.G in the MSI 2024 finals. However, Weibo has reasons to be optimistic: their carries looked impressive against LNG and seem to be at their best this year. Clutch and consistent, BLG should be wary of Wang "Light" Guang-Yu, especially if put on his Ashe, whose spacing and positioning have proven formidable, making her a potentially crucial pick in the best-of-five. He will face another extremely powerful ADC, Zhao "Elk" Jia-Hao, one of the key playmakers for BLG. While Elk hasn't been ultra-dominant in the laning phase, he has consistently demonstrated incredible precision in teamfights, as seen in their match against a strong HLE team.

But there is little point in delving deeper into the statistics of past matchups between these two teams, as history has shown us at Worlds that power dynamics can frequently shift in competition. Moreover, intra-LPL matches are often unpredictable and thrilling. Add a bit of pressure from the stakes, and we could witness one of the most spectacular best-of-fives at Worlds. Will we see a repeat upset like last year's encounter between these two teams at the same stage of the tournament? The answer will come today at 2 PM CET.